Baltimore Orioles at Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Recap

The Baltimore Orioles defeated the Atlanta Braves 3-1 at CoolToday Park on March 1, 2024, handing the home side a loss that the DiamondIQ model's estimate reflected clearly by game's end, swinging from a 54 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to zero. Baltimore did its decisive damage in the third inning, plating all three of its runs in a single frame against Bryce Elder. Ryan O'Hearn's double was the engine of the rally, adding 17.4 percent in win probability, and Ryan Mountcastle followed with a single that pushed the Orioles' advantage further, contributing another 10.2 percent. Atlanta managed just one run, scoring it in the sixth, and never mounted a sustained threat to overcome the deficit.

The Braves' best chances to claw back evaporated in the middle and late innings through a pair of damaging double plays. In the fifth, Chadwick Tromp grounded into a double play off Kaleb Ort, costing Atlanta 10.9 percent in win probability. The more damaging blow came in the eighth, when Leury García grounded into another double play off Andrew Suárez, a swing of negative 16.6 percent that all but closed the door on any Atlanta comeback. Kade Kern's strikeout to end the eighth, also against Suárez, removed the final 9.2 percent of remaining hope.

On the individual ledger, O'Hearn led all position players with a cumulative WPA of plus 18.1 percent and an RE24 of plus 1.9, while Mountcastle added plus 10.0 percent and Keshawn Ogans contributed plus 8.9 percent. On the mound, Andrew Suárez was the standout performer across both rosters, posting a plus 22.1 percent WPA by shutting down Atlanta's late opportunities. Bruce Zimmermann and Darius Vines added plus 10.1 percent and plus 9.9 percent respectively, giving Baltimore a deep collective pitching effort that held Atlanta's six hits to a single run throughout the afternoon.