New York Mets at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap

The St. Louis Cardinals held off the New York Mets 3-2 on March 1, 2024, at Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium, with the DiamondIQ model entering the game giving the Cardinals a 54 percent win probability as the home side and closing at 100 percent. St. Louis built its winning margin in the third inning, where Dylan Carlson's single off Blade Tidwell added 9.5 percent to the Cardinals' win probability, and José Fermín followed with a single off the same pitcher that swung things another 8.6 percent in St. Louis's favor. Alec Burleson extended the Cardinals' lead with a single off Paul Gervase in the fourth, a hit worth 8.9 percent in win probability that proved to be the decisive blow.

New York's most consequential offensive moment came in the top of the eighth, when Tomás Nido singled off Nick Robertson for a 13.4 percent win-probability swing, trimming the deficit to one. But the Mets were unable to complete the rally, and Joe Suozzi's strikeout against Ryan Fernandez in the top of the ninth was the most damaging out of the game, costing New York 8.9 percent in win probability and effectively sealing the Cardinals' one-run victory.

Among the individual standouts, Fernandez led all pitchers with a 15.2 percent WPA contribution, while Gordon Graceffo added 12.3 percent and Luis Severino posted 9.5 percent on the mound. Offensively, Nido finished at plus-11.5 percent WPA with a 0.8 RE24, Fermín matched him closely at plus-11.4 percent and led position players with a 1.4 RE24, and Burleson rounded out the top three at plus-10.7 percent WPA and a 1.0 RE24. The Cardinals were the cleaner team on the night, committing no errors against New York's one, and their pitching staff controlled enough key moments to protect a slim but sufficient margin.