MLB Recap · March 1, 2024

Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Recap

CLE4
Final
LAD6

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
CLE000020020470
LAD00100005-691

The Story

The Los Angeles Dodgers defeated the Cleveland Guardians 6-4 on March 1, 2024 at Camelback Ranch, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 54 percent pre-game home win probability to a final certainty of 100 percent, a shift driven almost entirely by one swing in the bottom of the eighth inning.

The game was a tightly contained affair through seven frames. Cleveland generated its most significant offensive moment in the top of the fifth, when David Fry singled off Nabil Crismatt to push the DiamondIQ model's estimate 14.0 percentage points in the Guardians' favor, and the visitors eventually plated two runs in that inning to take a lead into the late innings. The Guardians added two more in the top of the eighth on a Petey Halpin triple off J.P. Feyereisen, which added 12.9 percentage points to Cleveland's win probability, putting Los Angeles in a precarious position heading into the home half.

The bottom of the eighth unraveled entirely for Cleveland reliever Tyler Zuber. A Joe Vetrano walk shifted the model 12.1 points toward Los Angeles, a Brendon Davis single added another 9.6 points, and then Austin Gauthier delivered the decisive blow, a home run that swung the DiamondIQ model a staggering 63.6 percentage points and effectively ended the game. Gauthier finished as the game's most impactful player with a combined WPA of plus-59.0 and an RE24 of plus-3.1. Shohei Ohtani contributed a plus-11.1 WPA on the offensive side, while on the mound Cade Smith led Dodgers pitchers with a plus-9.7 WPA, followed by Tyler Glasnow at plus-8.2 and Jaime Barria at plus-7.9.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025CLE bats firstFinalLAD win %CLE win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 54% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Austin Gauthier Home Run
Bot 8th · off Tyler Zuber
+63.6%
David Fry Single
Top 5th · off Nabil Crismatt
+14.0%
Petey Halpin Triple
Top 8th · off J.P. Feyereisen
+12.9%
Joe Vetrano Walk
Bot 8th · off Tyler Zuber
+12.1%
Brendon Davis Single
Bot 8th · off Tyler Zuber
+9.6%

Top Batters by WPA

Austin Gauthier+59.0%+3.1 RE24
Shohei Ohtani+11.1%+1.2 RE24
Brendon Davis+9.6%+1.0 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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