Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| BOS | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 5 | 10 | 0 |
The Story
The Boston Red Sox defeated the Detroit Tigers 5-2 on February 29, 2024, at JetBlue Park, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate opening at a 54 percent home win probability before climbing to a final 100 percent as Boston pulled away through the middle innings.
The decisive stretch came in the third and fourth innings, where the game's largest win-probability swings unfolded. Ryan Kreidler's single off Garrett Whitlock in the top of the third provided Detroit its most meaningful offensive moment, a plus-6.8 percent shift that briefly kept the Tigers within reach. Boston answered immediately in the bottom half, as Rafael Devers connected on a home run off Tyler Holton for a plus-9.4 percent swing, the single largest play of the game by win-probability impact. The Red Sox then extended their advantage in the bottom of the fourth with a two-run frame, while Detroit squandered opportunities in multiple innings, most notably when Ryan Vilade grounded into a double play off Cooper Criswell in the top of the fourth, a minus-5.8 percent swing, compounding an earlier strikeout by Vilade in the second that cost Detroit minus-5.5 percent in win probability.
Among individual performers, Kreidler finished as the top batter by WPA at plus-11.2 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.0, while Trevor Story led all players in RE24 at plus-2.4 to go with a plus-6.9 percent WPA contribution. Devers added plus-7.1 percent WPA and a plus-0.9 RE24. On the mound, Cooper Criswell was the standout, generating plus-8.9 percent WPA by repeatedly limiting Detroit's damage in the middle innings, supported by Lucas Luetge and Garrett Whitlock, who contributed plus-3.3 and plus-3.2 percent respectively.