Colorado Rockies at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 18 | 0 |
| CHC | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 16 | 0 |
The Story
The Colorado Rockies held off the Chicago Cubs 10-9 at Sloan Park on February 29, 2024, in a game that required a full nine innings to decide. Colorado carried a 54 percent pre-game win probability against the DiamondIQ model's estimate for the home side, and the Rockies built their lead on an early offensive burst, plating three runs in the second inning on Julio Carreras's home run off Drew Smyly, a swing that added 13.2 percent to Colorado's win probability. The Rockies added three more in the fifth to push their advantage to 10-6 heading into the late innings, finishing with 18 hits and no errors on the night.
Chicago mounted a serious comeback attempt in the eighth and ninth innings, making the final two frames the most consequential of the game. David Bote's home run off Matt Koch in the bottom of the eighth added 22.2 percent to the Cubs' win probability, cutting into the deficit and keeping Chicago alive. But Jonathon Long's flyout to end that same inning carried a swing of negative 16.5 percent, blunting the rally's momentum. In the bottom of the ninth, Bote again came to the plate as the decisive figure, this time lining out against Chance Adams in a play that registered plus 27.7 percent for the Cubs — meaning the Cubs came within a hit of tying or taking the lead before Bote's lineout ended the threat and sealed Colorado's one-run win.
Bote was the most impactful individual performer by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, finishing with a combined WPA of plus 44.8 percent and an RE24 of plus 1.4, though his efforts ultimately fell just short. Owen Caissie contributed plus 26.9 percent WPA with a plus 2.1 RE24, the highest run-environment figure among position players, while Nico Hoerner added plus 13.9 percent WPA on the strength of his third-inning single off Peter Lambert. On the pitching side, Tyler Kinley led Colorado's relievers with plus 4.1 percent WPA, with Héctor Neris and Lambert also contributing positive figures to keep the Cubs from completing the comeback.