Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
The Story
The Washington Nationals handed the St. Louis Cardinals a 3-1 defeat on February 29, 2024, at Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium, building their lead in the early innings and holding it wire to wire. Washington scored twice in the first inning and added another run in the second, while St. Louis managed its only run in the bottom of the ninth against an otherwise stifling Nationals pitching staff. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving St. Louis a 54 percent home win probability, but that number collapsed steadily across nine innings, ultimately reaching zero.
The game's most consequential moment came in the bottom of the second, when Nick Raposo flew out against Patrick Corbin in a spot where a hit could have shifted momentum sharply toward the Cardinals, a play the DiamondIQ model measured at a 12.4 percent swing against St. Louis. Masyn Winn's double off Corbin in that same inning added 6.0 percent to St. Louis's win probability, but the Cardinals could not convert the opportunity. In the top of the second, Nasim Nuñez's strikeout against Kyle Gibson represented a 10.1 percent win-probability swing in Washington's favor, keeping the Cardinals from gaining ground. Nolan Arenado's strikeout off Corbin in the first inning carried a 6.3 percent negative swing for St. Louis, underscoring how thoroughly Corbin controlled the early going.
Patrick Corbin was the game's dominant individual performer by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, finishing with a 23.4 percent WPA contribution. Robert Garcia followed with 12.3 percent, and Michael McGreevy added 5.6 percent as the Nationals bullpen protected the lead cleanly. Among position players, Luken Baker led St. Louis with a 10.1 percent WPA on his ninth-inning lineout off Amos Willingham, a sequence that trimmed the deficit to its final margin but came too late to matter. Nasim Nuñez paced Washington's offensive contributors at 8.8 percent WPA, while Nick Senzel added 2.7 percent to round out the Nationals' key performers.