Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 1 |
| CIN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - | 5 | 5 | 0 |
The Story
The Cincinnati Reds defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers 5-4 at Goodyear Ballpark on February 29, 2024, in a game that shifted decisively in the bottom of the seventh inning. Cincinnati entered with a 54 percent pre-game win probability according to the DiamondIQ model's estimate, and that figure reached 100 percent by the final out. The Reds built an early advantage when Christian Encarnacion-Strand laced a triple off Landon Knack in the bottom of the fourth, a swing that moved Cincinnati's win probability up 13.6 percent. Los Angeles answered with a two-run sixth when Mookie Betts connected on a home run off Fernando Cruz, a blow worth plus-17.5 percent in win probability that briefly tightened the contest.
The game's decisive moment came in the bottom of the seventh when Edwin Arroyo doubled off Gus Varland, a hit the DiamondIQ model registered as the single largest win-probability swing of the night at plus-26.5 percent. That drive gave Cincinnati the separation it needed and effectively settled the outcome. Los Angeles made one final push in the eighth when Trey Sweeney hit a solo home run off Brooks Kriske, adding 14.7 percent in win probability for the Dodgers, but Cincinnati's bullpen held the line from there. Gavin Lux had contributed a key run-scoring single off Justin Bruihl in the top of the seventh worth 13.5 percent, but it proved insufficient.
Arroyo led all players in both WPA and RE24 at plus-26.5 percent and plus-1.7 respectively, making him the clear offensive catalyst for Cincinnati. Betts finished second among all batters at plus-16.4 percent WPA and plus-1.4 RE24 despite being on the losing side, while Sweeney posted plus-14.7 percent WPA and plus-1.0 RE24 in a reserve role. On the mound, Brett Kennedy was the most impactful arm in the game at plus-15.2 percent WPA for Cincinnati, supported by Tejay Antone at plus-5.8 percent and Graham Ashcraft at plus-5.4 percent. Los Angeles finished with one error against none for the Reds, and both clubs recorded five hits on the night.