Houston Astros at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

The Houston Astros handled the Miami Marlins 6-1 at Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium on February 28, 2024, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Miami win falling from 54 percent before first pitch to zero percent by the final out. Houston did its damage in concentrated bursts, scoring four runs in the third inning and two more in the fifth while holding the Marlins scoreless until a meaningless run in the ninth. Miami's two errors compounded their pitching struggles and left them without a path back into the game.

The third inning was where the contest effectively ended. David Hensley's double off Eli Villalobos was the single most impactful play of the game, shifting win probability by plus-15.9 percent in Houston's favor, and Yainer Diaz followed with a double off Tanner Scott that added another 12.6 percent swing. Dixon Machado contributed a single off Scott in that same inning, accounting for a 3.9 percent shift, and added another single off Emmanuel Ramirez in the fifth for a 4.3 percent move. Christian Bethancourt's flyout off Seth Martinez in the bottom of the fourth was Miami's best moment by the model's measure, a minus-7.2 percent swing that still left the Marlins trailing by a substantial margin.

Hensley finished as the top performer by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, posting a plus-16.6 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-2.0. Diaz contributed plus-11.0 percent WPA, while Machado's repeated clutch singles added up to plus-9.1 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.4. On the pitching side, Seth Martinez led Houston's staff with a plus-8.9 percent WPA, followed by Misael Tamarez at plus-6.7 percent and Wander Suero at plus-4.0 percent, as the Astros held Miami's lineup largely in check across eleven hits allowed against one.