MLB Recap · February 27, 2024

Colorado Rockies at Kansas City Royals: Final Score & Recap

COL3
Final
KC4

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
COL100010010360
KC00002200-470

The Story

The Kansas City Royals defeated the Colorado Rockies 4-3 on February 27, 2024, at Surprise Stadium, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win moving from 54% before first pitch to a certainty of 100% by game's end. The Rockies drew first blood with a run in the top of the first, but Kansas City answered with a pair of runs in the fifth and two more in the sixth to pull away for good. Colorado managed a run in the eighth, but it came far too late to alter the outcome.

The decisive stretch came in the fifth and sixth innings, where Kansas City stacked its most impactful offensive moments. Nate Eaton's home run off Gavin Hollowell in the bottom of the fifth added 12.4 percentage points to the Royals' win probability, and a walk issued to Vinnie Pasquantino by the same pitcher contributed another 12.3 points in that same frame. The sixth inning delivered the knockout blow, as a Tyler Cropley single off Victor Vodnik swung the probability 12.3 points, and CJ Alexander followed with a home run off Vodnik that pushed the win probability by an additional 15.2 points. Colorado's best chance to claw back came undone in the top of the seventh, when Grant Lavigne grounded into a double play off Matt Sauer, a sequence that cost the Rockies 10.9 percentage points.

On the pitching side, William Fleming led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-15.2, while Matt Sauer contributed plus-14.3 and Ryan Feltner added plus-12.1, giving Kansas City a strong collective effort on the mound. Among batters, Tyler Cropley finished as the top contributor at plus-11.5 WPA with a RE24 of plus-0.9, followed closely by CJ Alexander at plus-10.8 and Bradley Zimmer at plus-10.6. Kansas City finished the game with seven hits and no errors, while Colorado managed six hits and similarly committed no defensive miscues in a clean but ultimately one-sided final outcome.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025COL bats firstFinalKC win %COL win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 54% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

CJ Alexander Home Run
Bot 6th · off Victor Vodnik
+15.2%
Nate Eaton Home Run
Bot 5th · off Gavin Hollowell
+12.4%
Bot 5th · off Gavin Hollowell
+12.3%
Tyler Cropley Single
Bot 6th · off Victor Vodnik
+12.3%
Grant Lavigne Grounded Into DP
Top 7th · off Matt Sauer
-10.9%

Top Batters by WPA

Tyler Cropley+11.5%+0.9 RE24
CJ Alexander+10.8%+0.6 RE24
Bradley Zimmer+10.6%+0.4 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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