MLB Recap · February 27, 2024

Boston Red Sox at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap

BOS3
Final
STL3

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
BOS0000021003100
STL010000011372

The Story

The Boston Red Sox and St. Louis Cardinals played to a 3-3 tie on February 27, 2024, at Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium in a spring training contest that remained scoreless until the sixth inning. The Cardinals drew first blood in the second before Boston seized the lead in the sixth when Nick Sogard hit a home run off John King, a swing that shifted the DiamondIQ model's win probability estimate by plus-18.8 percentage points in Boston's favor. The Red Sox added another run in the seventh to build a 3-1 edge, and the Cardinals pulled within one in the eighth before the game's most consequential sequence arrived in the bottom of the ninth.

St. Louis closed to within reach after the Cardinals scored in the eighth, and the ninth inning saw the game's most volatile win-probability swings. Alfonso Rivas III grounded into a double play in the bottom of the eighth, the single most damaging batting event of the day, costing St. Louis 27.3 percentage points of win probability according to the DiamondIQ model. The Cardinals rallied in the ninth against Noah Song, with Jose Fermin drawing a walk that added 20.2 percentage points, followed by Jeremy Rivas drawing another walk that pushed the Cardinals' chances up by a further 31.1 percentage points. Michael Siani's flyout ended the threat and locked the game at three apiece, with the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate of a 54 percent home win probability ultimately resolving at zero as no winner was declared.

Jeremy Rivas finished as the game's top positional performer by WPA at plus-25.5 percent, pairing that with a plus-0.8 RE24, while Sogard led in run-environment impact with a plus-2.0 RE24 to go with his plus-23.8 percent WPA. Chase Meidroth contributed plus-20.1 percent WPA and a plus-1.8 RE24 for Boston. On the pitching side, Brandon Walter led Cardinals pitchers with a plus-9.3 percent WPA, with Justin Hagenman at plus-8.8 percent and Isaiah Campbell at plus-7.9 percent rounding out the standout arms from the St. Louis staff.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025BOS bats firstFinalSTL win %BOS win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 54% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Jeremy Rivas Walk
Bot 9th · off Noah Song
+31.1%
Alfonso Rivas III Grounded Into DP
Bot 8th · off Helcris Olivárez
-27.3%
José Fermín Walk
Bot 9th · off Noah Song
+20.2%
Nick Sogard Home Run
Top 6th · off John King
+18.8%
Michael Siani Flyout
Bot 9th · off Noah Song
-17.5%

Top Batters by WPA

Jeremy Rivas+25.5%+0.8 RE24
Nick Sogard+23.8%+2.0 RE24
Chase Meidroth+20.1%+1.8 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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