MLB Recap · February 27, 2024

Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Recap

TEX10
Final
AZ3

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
TEX13031200010150
AZ110100000380

The Story

The Texas Rangers handled the Arizona Diamondbacks convincingly at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick on February 27, 2024, winning 10-3 and finishing the game with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of Arizona's win probability at 0%, down from a 54% pre-game home favorite projection. Texas put together 15 hits without committing an error, while Arizona managed just 8 hits in a largely one-sided affair that was effectively decided through the first five innings.

The decisive blow came in the second inning, when Andrew Knizner connected on a home run off Eduardo Rodriguez, a swing that shifted win probability by +9.2% in Texas's favor and helped set the tone for a Rangers attack that would not relent. Nathaniel Lowe proved to be the most impactful bat of the afternoon, leading all players with a +16.3% cumulative WPA. His fourth-inning double off Bryce Jarvis was the single highest-leverage play of the game, adding +11.1% to Texas's win probability during a three-run frame that pushed the Rangers' lead to a commanding margin. Arizona briefly showed resistance in the second, where Ketel Marte's strikeout against Dane Dunning represented a -7.8% swing for the home side, snuffing a potential rally. Davis Wendzel added a fifth-inning double off Miguel Castro worth +5.5% to keep the pressure on.

On the pitching side, Chasen Shreve was the Rangers' most effective arm by WPA at +5.4%, followed by Dane Dunning at +2.8% and Jack Leiter at +1.1%. Andrew Knizner finished with a +3.0 RE24 to lead all players in run expectancy added, while Andrew Knapp contributed +7.6% WPA and a +1.4 RE24, rounding out a balanced Texas effort that overwhelmed Arizona in every phase of the game.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025TEX bats firstFinalAZ win %TEX win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 54% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Nathaniel Lowe Double
Top 4th · off Bryce Jarvis
+11.1%
Andrew Knizner Home Run
Top 2nd · off Eduardo Rodriguez
+9.2%
Ketel Marte Strikeout
Bot 2nd · off Dane Dunning
-7.8%
Davis Wendzel Double
Top 5th · off Miguel Castro
+5.5%
Nathaniel Lowe Flyout
Top 2nd · off Brandon Hughes
+5.3%

Top Batters by WPA

Nathaniel Lowe+16.3%+1.0 RE24
Andrew Knizner+10.3%+3.0 RE24
Andrew Knapp+7.6%+1.4 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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