New York Mets at Washington Nationals: Final Score & Recap

The New York Mets defeated the Washington Nationals 6-3 on February 26, 2024, at CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate opening at a 54 percent pre-game win probability for the home side before closing at zero percent as New York pulled away. The Mets built the foundation of their victory in the third inning, when Trayce Thompson connected on a home run off Robert Garcia that shifted win probability by 31.3 points in New York's favor, the decisive swing of the afternoon. Thompson finished as the game's top performer by a wide margin, posting a combined WPA of plus 32.2 percent and an RE24 of plus 3.7, underscoring just how much his one swing altered the game's trajectory.

Washington mounted a modest resistance in the later innings, with Jacob Young's seventh-inning single off Cam Robinson adding 9.7 points of win probability for the Nationals, and Trey Lipscomb's double in that same frame contributing another 8.1 points. The Nationals continued to threaten in the eighth, where Brady Lindsly's single off Joander Suarez briefly kept the door open, though Nasim Nuñez grounded out in the same frame to swing probability back toward New York by 8.8 points, effectively ending Washington's chances. On the mound, Joander Suarez led all pitchers with a WPA of plus 10.2 percent for the Nationals despite the outcome, while Tyler Stuart contributed plus 8.2 percent and Max Kranick added plus 6.7 percent for New York's staff. The final line showed the Mets out-hitting Washington nine to eight while committing one error to the Nationals' two.