St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

The St. Louis Cardinals and Miami Marlins played to a 1-1 tie on February 26, 2024, at Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate opening at 54 percent in favor of Miami and settling at zero percent at the conclusion of play. St. Louis scratched across its only run in the second inning while Miami answered in the third, and neither side managed to break the deadlock through nine frames despite the Cardinals out-hitting the Marlins nine to three.

The game's most consequential moments came in the middle and late innings, measured by their win-probability impact. The single biggest positive swing for Miami came in the bottom of the ninth, when Griffin Conine grounded out against Trent Baker in a sequence that nonetheless shifted the Marlins' win probability by plus-14.0 percent, reflecting how tightly contested the late-inning situation had become. On the Cardinals' side, Alfonso Rivas III's grounded into double play in the top of the third against Darren McCaughan cost St. Louis 13.8 percent in win probability, the most damaging single play for either offense. Matt Koperniak and José Fermín also hurt the Cardinals' cause with a grounded into double play in the seventh and a flyout in the ninth, swinging probability 8.8 and 10.9 percent against them respectively. A hit by pitch to Moisés Gómez in the top of the ninth off Elvis Alvarado generated a modest plus-8.0 percent swing that kept St. Louis alive momentarily.

Among individual performers, Conine led all position players with a plus-9.4 percent WPA, followed by César Prieto at plus-8.9 percent and Nolan Arenado at plus-7.5 percent. On the mound, Matt Andriese was the top-rated pitcher with a plus-15.4 percent WPA contribution, narrowly edging Cooper Hjerpe at plus-15.3 percent, while Elvis Alvarado added plus-13.5 percent despite his involvement in the ninth-inning sequence that kept the game knotted.