Detroit Tigers at Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Recap

The Detroit Tigers and Tampa Bay Rays played to a 9-9 tie on February 25, 2024, at Charlotte Sports Park, a result that left the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win probability at exactly 0% after opening the day at 54% in Tampa Bay's favor. Detroit built a commanding lead with a five-run third inning, highlighted by a Justyn-Henry Malloy home run off Logan Workman that added 10.6% in win probability, and Carson Kelly extended the advantage with a solo shot off Manuel Rodríguez in the fourth that swung the needle another 12.7%. The Tigers carried a 9-5 cushion into the seventh and appeared to be cruising toward a road victory.

Tampa Bay's comeback, however, unfolded almost entirely in the eighth inning. Austin Shenton delivered the most consequential single swing of the game, a single off Adam Wolf that added 27.2% in win probability and stood as the highest-impact at-bat by a wide margin. Ruben Cardenas followed with a double off Wilmer Flores worth another 17.3%, and the Rays ultimately plated four runs in the frame to draw even at nine. On the pitching side, Detroit's Austin Vernon was the most effective arm on the day by WPA, contributing 13.5%, with Keider Montero adding 5.8%.

The final out of the ninth inning came when Tanner Murray popped out against Austin Bergner, a play that carried a 14.0% win-probability impact simply by virtue of ending Tampa Bay's last realistic chance to walk off with a win. Both clubs finished with 12 hits, and Detroit committed no errors while the Rays were charged with two. The final box score — DET 9, TB 9 — reflected a game in which the Tigers twice nearly had victory secured and twice saw the margin evaporate before the final out preserved a draw.