Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Recap

The Baltimore Orioles defeated the Boston Red Sox 4-3 on February 24, 2024, at Ed Smith Stadium, with the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate giving the home side a 54% chance of winning. Baltimore surrendered a pair of runs in the third inning and trailed entering the final frames before a dramatic late-game sequence flipped the outcome entirely. Boston added a run in the top of the eighth on a David Hamilton single off Trey McGough, a play that shifted win probability by +17.2%, giving the Red Sox what appeared to be a workable late lead. That same inning, however, Justin Hagenman limited the damage by retiring Diego Castillo on a strikeout, a swing of -18.7% against Boston's chances, and Hagenman finished as the game's top-performing pitcher by WPA at +23.3%.

The decisive moment came in the bottom of the ninth against Nate Tellier. After Errol Robinson reached on a single that nudged Baltimore's odds upward by +12.3%, Colton Cowser deposited a home run that delivered a +67.7% win-probability swing and erased Boston's lead in one swing. Cowser finished as the game's most impactful batter at +72.9% WPA and +2.0 RE24, and his blast pushed the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Baltimore win to 100%. Garrett Stallings also contributed meaningfully on the mound, posting +18.5% WPA in his outing, while David Hamilton and Tyler McDonough paced Boston's offensive contributions at +14.7% and +11.2% WPA, respectively, though neither was enough to hold off the Orioles' ninth-inning surge.