MLB Recap · February 24, 2024

Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap

MIL11
Final
SD7

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
MIL23030000311131
SD200010310791

The Story

The Milwaukee Brewers handed the San Diego Padres an 11-7 defeat at Peoria Stadium on February 24, 2024, handing the home side a loss after the DiamondIQ model's estimate had opened with a 54 percent pre-game win probability favoring San Diego. Milwaukee scored in the first, second, fourth, and ninth innings, while San Diego's offense was largely unable to string together sustained damage, finishing with 7 runs on 9 hits. The Brewers totaled 13 hits and the final win probability for the Padres closed at zero percent.

The game's most consequential sequence arrived in the eighth inning, where Nathan Martorella delivered a double off James Meeker that shifted win probability by plus 20.2 percent in San Diego's favor, briefly tightening the contest. However, Brett Sullivan's pop out off the same pitcher swung things back by minus 18.7 percent, effectively neutralizing the threat. Earlier, Ripken Reyes had kept San Diego in the conversation with a seventh-inning single off Nick Bennett worth plus 12.4 percent in win probability. The Brewers then answered decisively in the top of the ninth when Brock Wilken doubled off Mitch Miller for a plus 13.2 percent swing, part of a three-run frame that put the game beyond reach. Jake Cronenworth's strikeout against Thyago Vieira in the second inning, a minus 11.6 percent play, proved an early turning point that helped Milwaukee's pitching staff maintain control.

Among individual standouts, Martorella led all batters with a plus 16.3 percent WPA alongside a 0.3 RE24, while Reyes posted plus 14.8 percent WPA and a 1.0 RE24. Wilken was the most impactful run-producer by context, finishing with plus 14.5 percent WPA and a game-high 2.6 RE24. On the mound, Thyago Vieira was the model's top-rated pitcher with a plus 11.6 percent WPA contribution, aided significantly by that Cronenworth strikeout in the second. Enoli Paredes and James Meeker added plus 4.9 and plus 4.5 percent respectively, as the DiamondIQ model favored the Brewers' pitching staff to hold serve in the critical innings.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025MIL bats firstFinalSD win %MIL win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 54% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Bot 8th · off James Meeker
+20.2%
Brett Sullivan Pop Out
Bot 8th · off James Meeker
-18.7%
Brock Wilken Double
Top 9th · off Mitch Miller
+13.2%
Ripken Reyes Single
Bot 7th · off Nick Bennett
+12.4%
Jake Cronenworth Strikeout
Bot 2nd · off Thyago Vieira
-11.6%

Top Batters by WPA

Nathan Martorella+16.3%+0.3 RE24
Ripken Reyes+14.8%+1.0 RE24
Brock Wilken+14.5%+2.6 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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