San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| LAD | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | - | 4 | 9 | 1 |
The Story
The Los Angeles Dodgers defeated the San Diego Padres 4-1 on February 23, 2024 at Camelback Ranch, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate opening at 54 percent in favor of the home side and closing at 100 percent by the final out. Los Angeles built its lead incrementally, scoring in the first, second, fifth, and seventh innings while holding San Diego to a single run in the third. The Padres finished with just three hits against a Dodgers pitching staff that consistently extinguished any rally attempts, and San Diego's inability to capitalize in key moments ultimately defined the outcome.
The game's most consequential plays, measured by win-probability impact, went against the Padres in the middle innings. Nathan Martorella's strikeout against T.J. McFarland in the top of the sixth represented the single largest swing of the game, costing San Diego 9.9 percentage points of win probability. Marcos Castañon compounded the damage in that same inning with a pop out off McFarland that shed another 8.0 percent, and he added a second pop out in the top of the eighth against Mitchell Tyranski worth minus 9.2 percent. On the positive side for San Diego, Cal Mitchell's single off Gus Varland in the third briefly injected life into the Padres' afternoon at plus 7.3 percent, and Chris Okey's single off Matt Festa in the bottom of the seventh was the top positive swing for Los Angeles at plus 7.2 percent.
Among the standout individual performers, Jakob Marsee led all batters with a WPA of plus 8.4 and an RE24 of plus 0.6, followed closely by Tyler Robertson at plus 7.9 WPA and plus 0.6 RE24, and Cal Mitchell at plus 7.3 WPA and plus 0.6 RE24. On the mound, Matt Waldron was the most impactful arm of the afternoon at plus 9.3 WPA, with Alec Gamboa contributing plus 7.2 and McFarland adding plus 6.4 to the Dodgers' collective pitching ledger. The model leans toward crediting the Dodgers' pitching depth and San Diego's repeated failures in high-leverage at-bats as the decisive factors in a comfortable Los Angeles win.