MLB Recap · February 22, 2024

Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap

LAD14
Final
SD1

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
LAD80000600014120
SD000100000170

The Story

The Los Angeles Dodgers routed the San Diego Padres 14-1 at Peoria Stadium on February 22, 2024, a result that left the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Padres victory falling from 54 percent before first pitch all the way to zero by the final out. Los Angeles did the bulk of its damage in two clusters, plating eight runs in the first inning and six more in the sixth, rendering the middle innings largely academic. San Diego's lone run came on a Jake Cronenworth home run off Alex Vesia in the fourth, a swing that added just 1.4 percent to the Padres' win probability and amounted to little more than a cosmetic entry in the line score.

The win-probability accounting points to a game that turned decisively in the earliest exchanges. On the pitching side, Michael Grove was the most impactful arm of the afternoon, generating 13.8 percent in win-probability added, with Gavin Stone contributing another 13.2 percent as the two Dodger starters held San Diego in check when it mattered most. The most consequential individual at-bats by WPA were actually outs that swung probability sharply: Cal Mitchell's strikeout against Grove in the second inning shifted the Padres' chances by negative 13.7 percent, and Jake Cronenworth's pop out against Stone in the first moved the needle by negative 13.0 percent, reflecting how thoroughly Los Angeles had seized control by the time those situations arose.

Among position players, Austin Barnes led Dodger batters with a WPA of plus 12.9 percent despite a RE24 of negative 0.1, and Chris Taylor posted plus 12.6 percent WPA alongside a negative 0.1 RE24, both figures reflecting their contributions within an offense that piled up 12 hits against a Padres staff that managed no errors but little resistance. Ha-Seong Kim added plus 1.3 percent WPA and was the most productive by run-expectancy context, finishing with a RE24 of plus 0.5. Elieser Hernández rounded out the notable pitching performances with a WPA of plus 0.9 percent on a day that belonged almost entirely to Los Angeles from the opening half-inning onward.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025LAD bats firstFinalSD win %LAD win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 54% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Cal Mitchell Strikeout
Bot 2nd · off Michael Grove
-13.7%
Jake Cronenworth Pop Out
Bot 1st · off Gavin Stone
-13.0%
Austin Barnes Strikeout
Top 2nd · off Jeremiah Estrada
+12.8%
Chris Taylor Lineout
Top 1st · off Gabe Mosser
+12.6%
Jake Cronenworth Home Run
Bot 4th · off Alex Vesia
+1.4%

Top Batters by WPA

Austin Barnes+12.9%-0.1 RE24
Chris Taylor+12.6%-0.1 RE24
Ha-Seong Kim+1.3%+0.5 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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