Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 1 |
| AZ | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | - | 6 | 9 | 1 |
The Story
The Arizona Diamondbacks defeated the Philadelphia Phillies 6-5 on October 20, 2023, at Chase Field, rallying from a deficit to claim a win the DiamondIQ model had assigned a 54 percent pre-game home win probability that ultimately closed at 100 percent. The game turned decisively in the bottom of the eighth inning, where Arizona constructed a three-run frame that erased Philadelphia's lead and sent the crowd home satisfied. The single most consequential moment of the night came when Alek Thomas connected on a home run off Craig Kimbrel, a swing that shifted win probability by 33.1 percentage points and effectively broke the game open. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. had set the table with a double off Kimbrel earlier in the inning, adding 12.4 percentage points of win probability, and Gabriel Moreno followed Thomas with a single off José Alvarado that pushed the advantage further, contributing an additional 16.4 points. Arizona had also applied pressure in the seventh, where Christian Walker drew a walk off Orion Kerkering worth 12.4 percentage points, though Pavin Smith's groundout in that same frame briefly swung momentum back toward Philadelphia by 14.5 points.
Among the night's standout performers, Thomas led all batters with a WPA of plus-33.1 percent and a RE24 of plus-1.6, while Moreno accumulated a WPA of plus-31.1 percent alongside a RE24 of plus-1.8, making him the most productive run-context contributor on either side. On the Philadelphia side, Kyle Schwarber generated a WPA of plus-23.8 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.5, providing the Phillies their clearest offensive lift. Arizona's bullpen shoulders much of the credit for preserving the outcome, with Paul Sewald leading Diamondbacks pitchers at plus-15.2 percent WPA, followed by Seranthony Domínguez at plus-10.8 percent and Miguel Castro at plus-8.1 percent. The line score tells a story of a tight, low-scoring game through seven innings that Arizona ultimately resolved with a concentrated burst of offense in the eighth, the kind of inning the DiamondIQ model identified as the night's decisive turning point.