Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks defeated the Philadelphia Phillies 2-1 on October 19, 2023, at Chase Field, grinding through eight scoreless innings before a tense seventh and a dramatic ninth settled the outcome. The DiamondIQ model opened the game with Arizona holding a 54% win probability, and by the final out that figure had reached 100%.

The decisive action began in the bottom of the seventh, when Lourdes Gurriel Jr. delivered a double off Orion Kerkering that shifted win probability 19.8 points in Arizona's favor, part of a sequence that produced the D-backs' first run of the game. Emmanuel Rivera's ground into a double play off José Alvarado in the same frame swung things back 18.5 points toward Philadelphia, briefly halting the Arizona threat. The Phillies answered with a run of their own to knot the score at one heading to the ninth, setting the stage for Craig Kimbrel. Pavin Smith's single off Kimbrel added 22.0 percentage points to Arizona's win probability, and Ketel Marte's single contributed another 15.9 points, constructing the game-winning rally before Rivera's fielder's choice out two batters later closed the door on any further Philadelphia threat at a cost of 22.0 points.

On the strength of those late contributions, Smith led all batters with a cumulative WPA of plus-29.7 and an RE24 of plus-1.5, while Gurriel Jr. finished at plus-25.6 with an identical RE24 of plus-1.5, and Marte added plus-21.6 and plus-1.2. On the pitching side, José Alvarado's work in the seventh registered the largest single-pitcher WPA contribution of the game at plus-36.2, with Brandon Pfaadt adding plus-25.8 and Ranger Suarez contributing plus-17.1 to an Arizona staff that collectively kept Philadelphia to three hits and a single run.