Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Recap

The Atlanta Braves defeated the Philadelphia Phillies 5-4 on October 9, 2023, at Truist Park in a game the DiamondIQ model opened with a 54% home win probability that ultimately closed at 100%. Philadelphia carried a 4-2 lead into the bottom of the seventh, but Atlanta mounted a decisive comeback built on two pivotal home runs that swung the contest irreversibly in the Braves' favor.

Travis d'Arnaud started the rally with a home run off Zack Wheeler in the bottom of the seventh, a swing the DiamondIQ model rated as a +22.5% win-probability shift that cut the deficit and reset the competitive tension of the game. Austin Riley then delivered the decisive blow in the bottom of the eighth, a home run off Jeff Hoffman that registered as the single largest win-probability swing of the night at +42.0%, moving Atlanta's chances by that margin alone. Together those two home runs transformed what had been a Philadelphia lead into a one-run Atlanta advantage the Phillies could not overcome. Nick Castellanos had a chance to change the outcome in the top of the ninth but grounded into a double play off Raisel Iglesias, a sequence that cost Philadelphia 15.7 percentage points of win probability and effectively ended the game.

Riley finished as the top performer by WPA at +35.6% with a RE24 of +1.4, while d'Arnaud contributed +18.9% WPA and a +1.3 RE24. Matt Olson added +15.6% WPA and a RE24 of +0.6 to round out Atlanta's most impactful offensive contributors. On the mound, Raisel Iglesias was the bullpen's most valuable arm, posting a +25.8% WPA in closing out the win, with José Alvarado adding +11.3% WPA in support. J.T. Realmuto's third-inning home run off Max Fried, a +16.7% swing for Philadelphia, stood as the Phillies' brightest moment but proved insufficient against Atlanta's late-inning surge.