Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
| LAD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
The Story
The Arizona Diamondbacks defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers 4-2 at Dodger Stadium on October 9, 2023, overcoming a pre-game environment where the DiamondIQ model's estimate gave Los Angeles a 54% chance of winning at home. Arizona plated three runs in the first inning and never relinquished that lead, adding a sixth-inning run while the Dodgers managed only isolated responses in the fourth and sixth. The D-backs finished with 8 hits and committed 1 error to Los Angeles's clean defensive night, but Arizona's pitching staff proved decisive in suppressing what little momentum the Dodgers could manufacture late.
The pivotal sequence of the game unfolded across the sixth through ninth innings, where Los Angeles repeatedly generated pressure only to squander it. In the bottom of the sixth, a Chris Taylor walk off Andrew Saalfrank shifted win probability 12.2% toward the Dodgers, but James Outman's subsequent strikeout against the same pitcher erased 11.0% of that swing and effectively stalled the rally. The damage compounded for Los Angeles in the eighth, when Taylor grounded into a double play off Kevin Ginkel, a play that cost the Dodgers 14.4% in win probability. Freddie Freeman's ground-ball double play in the seventh off Ryan Thompson had already cost them 14.0%, and by the time Kolten Wong lined out to end the ninth against Paul Sewald, that play carried a 14.4% swing that sealed a final win probability of 0% for the home side.
Zac Gallen led all pitchers with a 26.0% WPA, anchoring the Arizona effort and keeping the Dodgers' lineup at bay through the early innings when the lead was most fragile. Ryan Thompson added 18.0% WPA with his double-play induction of Freeman, and Kevin Ginkel contributed 13.3% WPA with his own twin killing in the eighth. Offensively, J.D. Martinez posted the game's top batting WPA at plus 8.6% with a RE24 of plus 1.0, while Lourdes Gurriel Jr. was close behind at plus 8.4% WPA and led all position players with a RE24 of plus 1.5, reflecting his contributions in high-leverage run-production situations. The model leans toward crediting Arizona's bullpen construction and double-play fortune as the defining factors in a tightly managed road victory.