Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks defeated the Milwaukee Brewers 6-3 on October 3, 2023, at American Family Field, erasing an early two-run deficit to hand Milwaukee a loss that the DiamondIQ model's estimate had initially framed as a 54 percent home-team advantage. The Brewers built that lead through the first two innings, but Arizona reversed the game's trajectory in the third when Corbin Carroll drove a home run off Corbin Burnes, a swing that shifted win probability by plus-15.3 percent in the Diamondbacks' favor. Gabriel Moreno added another solo shot off Burnes in the fourth, a plus-11.3 percent swing that pushed Arizona further ahead and made clear that Burnes had lost command of the zone against the top of the D-backs order.

Milwaukee's most dangerous threat to respond came in the bottom of the fifth, but Tyrone Taylor grounded into a double play off Ryan Thompson that erased the inning and swung win probability by minus-18.1 percent away from the Brewers, effectively ending their best chance at a rally. Christian Yelich's strikeout against Kevin Ginkel in the eighth, a minus-12.9 percent swing, compounded Milwaukee's inability to generate traffic in the late innings. Arizona put the game away in the ninth when Christian Walker doubled off Devin Williams for a plus-12.2 percent shift, extending the lead to its final margin.

Carroll finished as the game's most impactful offensive player at plus-27.9 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-3.1, while Walker contributed plus-18.9 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-2.5. On the pitching side, Ginkel led all pitchers at plus-33.0 percent WPA, with Thompson following at plus-26.0 percent and Abner Uribe adding plus-14.5 percent out of the bullpen. Milwaukee's Willy Adames was the lone Brewer to post a notable offensive contribution at plus-17.4 percent WPA, though it proved insufficient as Arizona held the Brewers to nothing after the second inning.