Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| STL | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 4 | 9 | 0 |
The Story
The St. Louis Cardinals closed out the regular season with a 4-3 win over the Cincinnati Reds at Busch Stadium on October 1, 2023, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate reflected as a near-certainty by game's end after opening at just 47 percent in favor of the home side. St. Louis built its margin in the third inning, scoring three runs to take a lead it would not relinquish, while Cincinnati answered with single runs in the first, third, and seventh frames but never managed to string together enough offense to overtake the Cardinals. Both clubs finished with nine hits and committed no errors, making the difference largely one of timing and situational execution.
The ninth inning was where the game's most consequential swings in win probability occurred, and it told the story of a Cincinnati rally that came tantalizingly close before falling short. Noelvi Marte opened with a double that added 13.7 percent to Cincinnati's win probability, and Will Benson followed with a single that pushed the needle another 15.1 percent, representing his largest individual contribution on a night where he finished as the top batter by WPA at plus-17.2 percent with a RE24 of plus-0.7. However, Ryan Helsley then retired Stuart Fairchild on a strikeout that swung 16.6 percent back toward St. Louis, and Nick Senzel's strikeout to end the game carried the single largest probability shift of the night at minus-20.3 percent for Cincinnati. Helsley finished as the top pitcher by WPA at plus-15.2 percent for his closing work.
Stuart Fairchild provided Cincinnati's brightest offensive moment before the ninth, lacing a double off Miles Mikolas in the seventh that added 14.1 percent to the Reds' win probability, though it produced only one run in the inning. For St. Louis, José Fermín contributed plus-10.0 percent WPA with a RE24 of plus-1.2, the highest run-environment figure among position players, while Jordan Walker added plus-8.4 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.0 in support of an offense that did just enough. John King also factored prominently in the Cardinals' pitching effort, posting plus-10.8 percent WPA in relief, as St. Louis pieced together its bullpen work to secure the narrow final margin.