Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies closed out a dominant 9-1 victory at Citi Field on October 1, 2023, turning what the DiamondIQ model estimated as a nearly even contest — with the Mets holding a 45% pre-game home win probability — into a complete rout by the final out. The game remained relatively tight through the early innings, with both teams trading single runs in the third, but Philadelphia steadily seized control before an explosive six-run ninth inning sealed the outcome and dropped the Mets' win probability to zero.

The decisive swings came from Phillies shortstop Bryson Stott, who was the most impactful offensive contributor of the night with a combined WPA of plus-16.2% and a RE24 of plus-2.0. His third-inning single off José Buttó shifted win probability by plus-10.7%, and his eighth-inning double off Denyi Reyes added another plus-11.1%, each moment systematically draining Mets momentum. Alec Bohm added a critical solo home run off Buttó in the sixth inning, worth plus-13.7% in win probability, while Tim Locastro's third-inning home run off Nick Nelson was the lone bright spot for New York at plus-11.2% from the Mets' side. Brett Baty's seventh-inning groundout into a double play off Seranthony Domínguez erased a potential threat and cost the Mets 10.3% in win probability.

On the mound, Philadelphia's bullpen was dominant. Nick Nelson led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-15.8%, followed by Gregory Soto at plus-13.3% and Seranthony Domínguez at plus-10.3%, collectively suffocating a Mets offense that managed only two hits on the night. Garrett Stubbs quietly contributed offensively as well, finishing with a WPA of plus-5.5% and a RE24 of plus-1.0. Philadelphia's combination of timely hitting and shutdown pitching made the final margin of eight runs a precise reflection of how thoroughly the Phillies controlled this game.