Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Recap

The Washington Nationals handed the Atlanta Braves a 10-9 defeat at Truist Park on October 1, 2023, overcoming a team that entered the game as a heavy favorite. The DiamondIQ model's estimate gave Atlanta a 73% pre-game win probability, yet that figure collapsed to 0% by the final out as Washington clawed back to steal a road victory.

The decisive stretch came in the ninth inning, where Washington's offense did its most critical damage. Drew Millas reached on a walk off Michael Tonkin that shifted win probability by 27.3 percentage points in the Nationals' favor, the single largest swing of the game. Jacob Young followed with a single off Tonkin worth an additional 20.9 percentage points, extending the Nationals' advantage before they ultimately pushed three runs across in the frame to take a 10-9 lead. Atlanta had built its case earlier on the strength of Marcell Ozuna's third-inning home run off Jackson Rutledge, a swing worth 23.9 percentage points that helped the Braves overcome a four-run Washington first inning, and Michael Harris II's seventh-inning single off José A. Ferrer, which added 24.0 percentage points and briefly put Atlanta in a strong position. However, Eddie Rosario's lineout to end the bottom of the ninth off Kyle Finnegan, representing a 21.4-percentage-point swing in Washington's direction as Atlanta's last realistic threat expired, sealed the outcome.

Harris finished as Atlanta's top performer by WPA at plus-33.2%, adding a RE24 of plus-1.0, while Ozuna contributed plus-28.6% WPA and a game-high RE24 of plus-3.5 despite being on the losing side. Young paced Washington's individual contributors at plus-26.0% WPA. Among pitchers, Jackson Rutledge led Washington's staff with plus-10.3% WPA, followed by Jesse Chavez at plus-8.3%, as the Nationals bullpen collectively managed to preserve a late lead that the DiamondIQ model had given almost no chance of materializing before first pitch.