Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 1 |
| STL | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | 15 | 13 | 0 |
The Story
The St. Louis Cardinals closed out their home schedule with a dominant 15-6 victory over the Cincinnati Reds on September 30, 2023, at Busch Stadium. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving St. Louis a 47 percent win probability, but that figure climbed steadily toward certainty as the Cardinals poured on five runs in each of the first two innings, effectively ending any competitive drama before the game reached the midpoint. Cincinnati managed a four-run fifth inning to make the score more presentable, but St. Louis answered with four more in the eighth to close at 15-6, finishing with 13 hits and no errors against the Reds' 14 hits and one error.
The game's most consequential sequence came in the first two innings, where the DiamondIQ model's win probability swung sharply in St. Louis's favor through a combination of Cardinals production and Cincinnati self-destruction. The single biggest probability shift came in the bottom of the second, when Masyn Winn struck out Buck Farmer with runners on base, a play that added 13.1 percentage points to St. Louis's win probability. Just before that, in the top of the second, Stuart Fairchild was caught stealing home off Drew Rom, a baserunning miscue that cost Cincinnati 12.7 percentage points of win probability and effectively extinguished whatever rally the Reds had hoped to build. Winn also contributed a pop out in the bottom of the first that added another 10.6 percentage points, a reflection of the high-leverage situation Cincinnati pitchers continually found themselves unable to escape.
Among the standout performers, Winn led all position players with a combined WPA of plus-23.8 percent, though his RE24 of plus-0.2 reflected a quieter night at the plate in terms of run production. Lars Nootbaar added a home run off Fernando Cruz in the second inning, finishing with a WPA of plus-3.9 and an RE24 of plus-2.2, while Paul Goldschmidt contributed a WPA of plus-3.1 and led Cardinals regulars with an RE24 of plus-2.9. On the mound, Drew Rom was the most valuable arm by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, generating plus-14.8 percent in win probability as he kept Cincinnati at bay through the middle innings.