MLB Recap · September 30, 2023

Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers: Final Score & Recap

CLE0
Final
DET8

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
CLE000000000082
DET00010250-880

The Story

The Detroit Tigers closed out September 30 at Comerica Park with a commanding 8-0 victory over the Cleveland Guardians, a result the DiamondIQ model tracked from a 55 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to a final estimate of 100 percent. Cleveland managed eight hits but was undone by two errors and an inability to convert opportunities into runs, while Detroit's pitching staff held the Guardians scoreless across all nine innings.

The decisive stretch came in the sixth and seventh innings, where Detroit pulled away for good. The biggest single play of the game came in the bottom of the sixth, when Akil Baddoo laced a triple off Eli Morgan that swung win probability by 20.7 percent in Detroit's favor. Cleveland had briefly created some tension in the top of the sixth when Josh Naylor drew a walk off Beau Brieske, adding 7.6 percent to the Guardians' win probability, but that threat evaporated quickly as Brayan Rocchio grounded into a forceout off Tyler Holton, costing Cleveland 7.3 percent, and Kole Calhoun popped out to erase another 7.0 percent. Detroit then erupted for five runs in the seventh to put the game entirely out of reach. Miguel Cabrera had contributed an important double off Triston McKenzie in the fourth inning, a hit that added 6.8 percent to Detroit's win probability and helped establish early pressure.

Baddoo finished as the game's most impactful offensive performer, posting a WPA of plus-29.3 percent and an RE24 of plus-3.3, reflecting how consistently dangerous he was in run-creation situations. Andy Ibáñez added a WPA of plus-6.4 percent with an RE24 of plus-1.7, while Naylor's plus-6.5 percent WPA was ultimately wasted in a winless effort for Cleveland. On the mound, Tyler Holton was the most valuable arm by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, generating plus-12.8 percent WPA, with Nick Sandlin at plus-8.6 percent and Miguel Díaz at plus-7.8 percent rounding out a Detroit pitching performance that kept Cleveland's lineup completely off the scoreboard.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025CLE bats firstFinalDET win %CLE win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 54.6% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Akil Baddoo Triple
Bot 6th · off Eli Morgan
+20.7%
Josh Naylor Walk
Top 6th · off Beau Brieske
+7.6%
Brayan Rocchio Forceout
Top 6th · off Tyler Holton
-7.3%
Kole Calhoun Pop Out
Top 6th · off Beau Brieske
-7.0%
Miguel Cabrera Double
Bot 4th · off Triston McKenzie
+6.8%

Top Batters by WPA

Akil Baddoo+29.3%+3.3 RE24
Josh Naylor+6.5%+1.1 RE24
Andy Ibáñez+6.4%+1.7 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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