MLB Recap · September 29, 2023

Minnesota Twins at Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Recap

MIN7
Final
COL6

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
MIN1210002017140
COL0113100006130

The Story

The Minnesota Twins held on to defeat the Colorado Rockies 7-6 at Coors Field on September 29, 2023, rallying past a late Colorado surge to secure the road victory. The DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate gave Minnesota a 64% chance of winning, and despite a rocky middle stretch, the model's final read settled at 0% for a Colorado outcome. The Twins built early advantages in the first three innings, but the Rockies answered with a three-run fourth that briefly tilted the game's momentum, punctuated by Alan Trejo's home run off Joe Ryan — the single largest win-probability swing of the night at plus 27.2 percentage points — that brought Colorado within striking distance and loomed as the game's most consequential offensive moment.

Minnesota responded decisively in the seventh inning, when Ryan Jeffers launched a home run off Gavin Hollowell worth plus 15.8 percentage points, helping the Twins push ahead 7-5 heading into the final frames. Jeffers finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus 32.0, paired with a RE24 of plus 1.9. The ninth inning encapsulated the drama of the contest: Kyle Farmer's single off Tyler Kinley, worth plus 20.0 percentage points, extended the Minnesota lead, and Max Kepler followed with a sacrifice fly worth plus 13.3 percentage points to provide critical insurance. Colorado's final threat ended when Elehuris Montero popped out to close the game, a play that carried a swing of plus 27.0 percentage points in Minnesota's favor.

On the pitching side, Justin Lawrence and Kody Funderburk were Minnesota's most impactful relievers, contributing plus 19.4 and plus 19.2 percentage points respectively in WPA. Kepler finished second among all batters at plus 31.0 WPA and plus 1.8 RE24, while Trejo led all hitters in run-environment impact at plus 2.5 RE24 despite pitching for a losing cause. Colorado managed 13 hits but could not solve Minnesota's bullpen when it mattered most, as the Twins finished a clean 14-hit, zero-error performance on the road.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025MIN bats firstFinalCOL win %MIN win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 36.5% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Alan Trejo Home Run
Bot 4th · off Joe Ryan
+27.2%
Elehuris Montero Pop Out
Bot 9th · off Emilio Pagán
+27.0%
Kyle Farmer Single
Top 9th · off Tyler Kinley
+20.0%
Ryan Jeffers Home Run
Top 7th · off Gavin Hollowell
+15.8%
Max Kepler Sac Fly
Top 9th · off Tyler Kinley
+13.3%

Top Batters by WPA

Ryan Jeffers+32.0%+1.9 RE24
Max Kepler+31.0%+1.8 RE24
Alan Trejo+30.2%+2.5 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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