Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 3 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 19 | 17 | 1 |
| STL | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 3 |
The Story
The Cincinnati Reds closed out a visit to Busch Stadium on September 29, 2023 with a resounding 19-2 demolition of the St. Louis Cardinals, piling up 17 hits against a Cardinals pitching staff that allowed crooked numbers in four separate innings. Cincinnati scored three in the first, four in the second, seven in the fourth, and five more in the eighth, while St. Louis managed just two runs on six hits and compounded their troubles with three errors. The DiamondIQ model had opened the day with St. Louis holding a 46 percent home win probability, a figure that collapsed to zero percent by the final out.
The game's decisive momentum shifts came early and were defined as much by Cardinals failures as Reds production. In the bottom of the first, Jordan Walker grounded into an out against Brandon Williamson that swung win probability 6.0 percent in Cincinnati's favor, and a half-inning later Andrew Knizner's double-play grounder off Williamson in the second delivered the single biggest probability swing of the game at 12.0 percent, effectively snuffing out any St. Louis threat before the Cardinals could gain traction. The lone positive development for St. Louis came when Richie Palacios connected for a home run off Williamson in the third, a swing worth plus-5.6 percent in win probability, though Tommy Edman immediately followed by grounding into a double play that erased 5.4 percent from the Cardinals' outlook.
Brandon Williamson was the standout individual performer, earning plus-14.7 percent WPA on the mound as he navigated the Cardinals lineup despite conceding the Palacios home run. At the plate, Christian Encarnacion-Strand led all position players with a plus-11.2 percent WPA and a plus-1.3 RE24 mark, including a flyout in the top of the second that, in context, registered a plus-10.2 percent probability swing. Richie Palacios added plus-5.6 percent WPA and plus-1.2 RE24 for St. Louis, and Will Benson contributed plus-4.6 percent WPA and plus-1.0 RE24 for Cincinnati in what amounted to a thoroughly one-sided final.