San Diego Padres at Chicago White Sox: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| CWS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
The Story
The San Diego Padres defeated the Chicago White Sox 3-2 at Guaranteed Rate Field on September 29, 2023, handing the home side a loss that the DiamondIQ model's estimate reflected in full — Chicago's pre-game win probability stood at 42% and closed at 0%. San Diego scored all three of its runs across the fifth and sixth innings, then held on through a late Chicago push to secure the road victory.
The decisive moment came in the top of the sixth, when Trent Grisham doubled off Yohan Ramírez, a swing that shifted win probability by 20.3 percentage points in San Diego's favor according to the DiamondIQ model. Grisham finished as the game's most impactful offensive player, accumulating a total WPA of plus-25.0 and a RE24 of plus-2.2. Chicago mounted a challenge in the ninth against Josh Hader, when Carlos Pérez connected for a home run worth plus-10.9 percentage points, and an Eloy Jiménez hit by pitch had added another plus-12.3 points moments earlier, giving Pérez a game total of plus-18.5 WPA. Yoán Moncada also registered plus-13.4 WPA on the night for the White Sox.
San Diego's pitching staff largely kept Chicago's lineup in check through the middle innings. Tom Cosgrove generated the two most damaging outs of the seventh, with an Andrew Benintendi groundout and a Tim Anderson flyout together swinging the probability more than 22 points toward the Padres. Nick Martinez led all pitchers at plus-18.5 WPA, followed by Cosgrove at plus-14.7 and Dylan Cease at plus-13.1 as San Diego's staff combined to preserve the one-run margin.