Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers: Final Score & Recap

The Cleveland Guardians handed the Detroit Tigers a 7-5 defeat at Comerica Park on September 29, 2023, erasing what the DiamondIQ model had estimated as a 54 percent pre-game home win probability for Detroit and running that figure all the way to zero by the final out. Cleveland built its advantage early and decisively, scoring three runs in the second inning and four more in the third to take a commanding 7-2 lead through three frames that Detroit could never fully recover from.

The most consequential swing of the game came in the top of the third, when Tyler Freeman connected on a home run off Joey Wentz that shifted win probability by 19.3 percent in Cleveland's favor, the single largest play of the contest. Freeman finished as the game's top offensive performer by WPA at plus-16.4 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.5, anchoring an attack that generated 13 hits without committing an error. Bo Naylor had added an earlier home run off Wentz in the second inning worth plus-8.2 percent in win probability, while Detroit's best response came from Parker Meadows, whose fourth-inning triple off Cal Quantrill swung the probability 12.6 percent toward the home side, and a Zach McKinstry home run in the second that moved the needle 11.3 percent. Miguel Cabrera contributed meaningfully for Detroit with a plus-9.8 percent WPA and plus-1.3 RE24.

Cleveland's bullpen ultimately sealed the outcome, with Enyel De Los Santos, Sam Hentges, and Reynaldo López posting WPA figures of plus-6.3, plus-6.0, and plus-5.2 percent respectively. The closest Detroit came to a late rally was a Matt Vierling lineout against Emmanuel Clase in the ninth that represented a 14.4 percent probability swing, but Clase held firm and Cleveland walked away with the two-run victory.