Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants: Final Score & Recap

The Los Angeles Dodgers defeated the San Francisco Giants 6-2 on September 29, 2023, at Oracle Park, handing the home side a result the DiamondIQ model ultimately gave zero percent chance of avoiding. The Giants entered with a 41 percent pre-game win probability, but a pair of home runs did the decisive damage against starter Keaton Winn. Freddie Freeman got Los Angeles on the board in the third inning with a solo shot that swung win probability 10.4 percent in the Dodgers' favor, and J.D. Martinez delivered the knockout blow in the sixth, launching a three-run home run off Winn that shifted win probability by 23.6 percent and effectively closed the door on any San Francisco comeback. The Dodgers pushed their run total to six while the Giants managed just two, scattering only two hits against a Los Angeles pitching staff that allowed nothing after the third inning.

Lance Lynn held the Dodgers to a manageable situation for stretches but ultimately absorbed the loss, finishing as the Giants' top pitcher by WPA at plus-15.2 percent, a figure that reflects his ability to limit further damage in spots even if the overall outcome was not in his favor. Thairo Estrada's sixth-inning ground into a double play off Lynn cost San Francisco 8.8 percent in win probability at a moment when a rally might have narrowed the deficit, while David Peralta's double-play grounder in the fourth similarly stifled a Los Angeles threat and bled 5.4 percent in Dodger win probability. By WPA, Martinez led all hitters at plus-21.2 percent with a RE24 of plus-2.0, while Freeman contributed plus-15.5 percent and Giants first baseman Wilmer Flores, whose third-inning home run off Lynn briefly kept the game within reach, finished at plus-12.9 percent despite ending up on the losing side.