Houston Astros at Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Recap

The Houston Astros edged the Arizona Diamondbacks 2-1 at Chase Field on September 29, 2023, scoring all of their runs in the sixth inning and holding on as the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate of a 51 percent home win probability fell to zero by the final out. Houston's offense had been completely silent through five innings against Zac Gallen before José Abreu cracked a sixth-inning double that shifted win probability by 24.8 percent in the Astros' favor, providing the catalyst for a two-run frame that would prove to be the difference in the game.

Arizona's best opportunity to damage Houston came and went largely because of Tommy Pham, whose groundout in the eighth inning off Héctor Neris swung win probability 12.3 percent toward Houston, and whose grounded into double play in the sixth off José Urquidy had already cost the Diamondbacks 11.8 percent in win probability at a critical juncture. The lone Arizona run came in the ninth on a Gabriel Moreno double off Ryan Pressly that added 11.0 percent to the home side's chances, but Jace Peterson's groundout to end the inning closed the door and registered as the single biggest closing play of the night at plus 21.4 percent from Houston's perspective.

On the individual ledger, Jace Peterson led all position players with a WPA of plus 28.3 percent, while José Abreu finished at plus 26.3 percent with a RE24 of plus 1.5, reflecting his direct run-creation impact. On the mound, José Urquidy was the game's most valuable pitcher with a WPA of plus 30.1 percent, followed by Héctor Neris at plus 13.3 percent. The Diamondbacks managed just four hits against an Astros pitching staff that stifled them across nine innings, leaving Arizona with a result as flat as its scoreboard through eight frames.