MLB Recap · September 28, 2023

Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers: Final Score & Recap

KC3
Final
DET7

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
KC102000000360
DET00000070-7101

The Story

The Detroit Tigers closed out September 28, 2023 at Comerica Park with a 7-3 victory over the Kansas City Royals, a result the DiamondIQ model had strongly anticipated with a pre-game home win probability of 68 percent that climbed to 100 percent by the final out. Kansas City managed to grab an early foothold, scoring once in the first and twice in the third, but Detroit's bats were otherwise quiet until an explosive seventh inning erased any doubt about the outcome.

The decisive sequence came in the bottom of the seventh, where the Tigers sent Detroit's lineup through a demolishing stretch against Kansas City relievers. Spencer Torkelson delivered the game's single most impactful swing, a home run off Carlos Hernández that shifted win probability by plus-25.5 percent and stood as the defining moment of the contest. Andy Ibáñez followed with a single off Hernández worth plus-17.1 percent, and Matt Vierling added another single off the same pitcher at plus-14.6 percent, turning the inning into an avalanche. Parker Meadows then contributed a plus-10.7 percent single off Cole Ragans to cap the seven-run frame. Michael Massey's third-inning home run off Sawyer Gipson-Long had been the brightest moment for Kansas City, swinging win probability by plus-18.4 percent and giving the Royals brief life, but it ultimately went for naught.

By the advanced metrics, Torkelson led all batters with a plus-20.3 percent WPA and plus-2.3 RE24, while Meadows and Massey rounded out the top performers at plus-16.1 and plus-15.8 percent WPA respectively. On the mound, Cole Ragans posted the best pitching WPA on the day at plus-13.9 percent despite surrendering the Meadows single late in the seventh, supported by Will Vest at plus-2.7 percent and José Cisnero at plus-2.1 percent as Detroit closed out the win with relative ease.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025KC bats firstFinalDET win %KC win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 67.6% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Spencer Torkelson Home Run
Bot 7th · off Carlos Hernández
+25.5%
Michael Massey Home Run
Top 3rd · off Sawyer Gipson-Long
+18.4%
Andy Ibáñez Single
Bot 7th · off Carlos Hernández
+17.1%
Matt Vierling Single
Bot 7th · off Carlos Hernández
+14.6%
Parker Meadows Single
Bot 7th · off Cole Ragans
+10.7%

Top Batters by WPA

Spencer Torkelson+20.3%+2.3 RE24
Parker Meadows+16.1%+1.2 RE24
Michael Massey+15.8%+1.7 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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