Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| BAL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - | 2 | 4 | 1 |
The Story
The Baltimore Orioles defeated the Boston Red Sox 2-0 on September 28, 2023, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate opening at a 68 percent pre-game home win probability and climbing to 100 percent by the final out. Baltimore scored once in the first inning and added an insurance run in the eighth, while Boston managed just three hits and never seriously threatened to break through.
The decisive sequence came in the bottom of the eighth when Heston Kjerstad doubled off Zack Kelly, a swing that shifted win probability by plus 9.4 percent and effectively put the game away. Boston had its best chance to cut into the deficit in the top of the eighth, when Connor Wong singled off Yennier Cano for a plus 6.0 percent swing, but Ceddanne Rafaela's subsequent strikeout against the same pitcher erased the threat at a cost of minus 6.5 percent. Earlier, Adam Duvall's strikeout against DL Hall in the top of the sixth represented the single most damaging moment for Boston's offense, dropping their win probability by 8.1 percent.
Among the top performers, DL Hall led all pitchers with a plus 22.1 percent WPA contribution, followed closely by Chris Sale at plus 20.4 percent, as the two starters combined to suffocate the Boston lineup. Kjerstad and Wong paced the offense with WPA figures of plus 9.4 and plus 9.8 percent respectively, though the game was ultimately a pitching story, with Dean Kremer adding plus 9.5 percent from the bullpen to close things out cleanly.