Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Recap

The Seattle Mariners walked off the Texas Rangers 3-2 on September 28, 2023, at T-Mobile Park, erasing a 2-1 deficit with two runs in the bottom of the ninth to complete a comeback the DiamondIQ model initially gave Seattle only a 52 percent chance of pulling off before first pitch. Texas held the lead deep into the contest on just three hits, but the Rangers' bullpen could not hold in the final frame, and Seattle converted in dramatic fashion to push the model's estimate of a home win to 100 percent by game's end.

The decisive moment of the night came when J.P. Crawford laced a double off Jonathan Hernández in the bottom of the ninth, a single swing that shifted Seattle's win probability by plus-74.2 percent and proved to be the highest-impact play of the game. The rally was not without its difficult moments — Josh Rojas' pop out had knocked the probability back down by 27.3 percent, and Mike Ford's flyout subtracted another 17.8 percent — but Ty France drew a walk off Aroldis Chapman that added 25.7 percent to Seattle's chances and kept the inning alive long enough for the Mariners to score the winning run. Crawford finished as the clear standout by the DiamondIQ model's metrics, credited with a plus-59.5 percent WPA for the game.

On the pitching side, José Leclerc led Rangers hurlers with a plus-23.3 percent WPA, and Jordan Montgomery contributed plus-20.8 percent, meaning Texas' starters and middle relief largely did their jobs. Adolis García paced Texas at the plate with a plus-13.3 percent WPA and a team-best plus-1.1 RE24, accounting for much of the Rangers' offensive production in a game that saw them manage only three hits total. Seattle's eight hits ultimately proved decisive, concentrated at precisely the right moment to hand the Mariners the victory.