Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 2 |
| PHI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
The Story
The Pittsburgh Pirates knocked off the Philadelphia Phillies 3-2 at Citizens Bank Park on September 28, 2023, overcoming a pre-game DiamondIQ model estimate that gave Philadelphia a 63 percent chance of winning at home. The Pirates scratched across a run in the third and then broke the game open with two more in the fifth, while the Phillies managed single runs in the first and eighth innings but never pulled even. Pittsburgh out-hit Philadelphia 11 to 5 and committed two errors without allowing them to prove costly, as the pitching staff held firm throughout.
The decisive swing came in the top of the fifth, when Jared Triolo doubled off Matt Strahm to push Pittsburgh's advantage, a play that shifted win probability by plus 14.0 percent in the Pirates' favor and left Triolo as one of the game's most impactful offensive contributors with a plus 24.4 percent WPA and a plus 1.7 RE24. Philadelphia mounted a late threat in the eighth when Trea Turner doubled off Carmen Mlodzinski to swing probability plus 12.4 percent toward the Phillies, but J.T. Realmuto then struck out to push it back the other way by minus 12.9 percent, effectively neutralizing the rally. The game's single largest play came in the bottom of the ninth, when David Bednar retired Cristian Pache on a strikeout to slam the door, a moment that moved win probability plus 27.0 percent toward Pittsburgh and sealed the final out.
On the mound, Luis Ortiz led all pitchers with a plus 20.6 percent WPA, supported by Dauri Moreta at plus 11.8 percent and Michael Lorenzen at plus 8.6 percent, collectively dismantling a Phillies lineup that entered as heavy favorites. Cristian Pache led all position players with a plus 25.4 percent WPA despite a minus 0.5 RE24, a reflection of his role in the final out rather than run production. The DiamondIQ model's estimate moved from 63 percent in Philadelphia's favor before first pitch all the way to zero percent by game's end, a complete reversal driven by Pittsburgh's timely hitting and a bullpen that allowed only one late run before closing out the series.