Chicago Cubs at Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Recap

The Atlanta Braves defeated the Chicago Cubs 5-3 at Truist Park on September 28, 2023, completing a wire-to-wire victory that the DiamondIQ model had anticipated, assigning Atlanta a 67% pre-game win probability that ultimately reached 100% by the final out. Atlanta struck early, scoring two runs in the first inning and two more in the second, building a 4-0 cushion that the Cubs spent the rest of the evening chasing. Ronald Acuña Jr.'s single off Marcus Stroman in the bottom of the second was one of the early catalysts for Atlanta, registering a +5.4% swing in win probability as the Braves continued to pile on against the Chicago starter.

The most consequential stretch of the game came in the eighth inning, where the Cubs mounted their most credible threat. Seiya Suzuki delivered a single off A.J. Minter that swung win probability by +8.3% in Chicago's favor, momentarily tightening the contest. However, Dansby Swanson's ground-ball double play in the same half-inning erased the threat and carried a -10.6% swing against the Cubs, effectively closing the door on any Chicago comeback. Suzuki was the most impactful offensive performer on the night, finishing with a cumulative WPA of +21.1% and a RE24 of +1.6, also contributing a +6.4% double in the sixth off Kyle Wright. Despite his efforts, the Cubs' two errors proved costly against a clean Atlanta defense that committed none.

On the mound, Raisel Iglesias led Atlanta's relief corps with a +6.3% WPA contribution, followed by Joe Jiménez at +5.0% and AJ Smith-Shawver at +3.8%, the latter also limiting damage in the first inning when Suzuki's flyout, despite its +5.4% WPA for Chicago, ended the threat. Austin Riley supported Atlanta's offense with a +6.8% WPA and +1.3 RE24, while Nico Hoerner provided Chicago's secondary offensive contribution at +7.6% WPA and +0.8 RE24. The final line of 5-3 reflected a game that was largely in Atlanta's control from the opening frame.