St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap

The Milwaukee Brewers defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 3-0 on September 28, 2023, at American Family Field, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 67 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. Milwaukee scored in three separate innings, tallying single runs in the first, third, and sixth, while holding the Cardinals to six hits and no runs across nine innings. St. Louis finished the night without a single crooked number on the board, managing no errors but generating nothing of consequence against a Brewers pitching staff that was in command throughout.

The game's most consequential sequence came in the fourth inning, where a Cardinals rally briefly flickered before being extinguished. Andrew Knizner's single off Corbin Burnes represented a 7.8 percent swing in St. Louis's favor, the largest positive moment for the Cardinals all night, but Masyn Winn followed with a strikeout that erased 6.6 percent of that gain, and Juniel Querecuto's lineout cost another 8.4 percent, effectively snuffing out any threat. In the bottom of the fifth, William Contreras grounded into a double play against Dakota Hudson, a swing of negative 9.6 percent that buried what had been a developing Milwaukee opportunity, though it mattered little given the Brewers' ultimate margin.

The standout performers by the DiamondIQ model's win-probability accounting were Julio Teheran on the mound and Christian Yelich at the plate. Teheran led all pitchers with a 21.8 percent WPA, benefiting notably from Lars Nootbaar's double play in the seventh that was worth negative 6.6 percent for St. Louis. Corbin Burnes added 9.9 percent WPA in his starting role, and Ethan Small contributed 2.4 percent out of the bullpen. Offensively, Yelich topped all batters at plus 11.6 percent WPA and plus 1.8 RE24, with Garrett Mitchell adding 6.5 percent WPA and 1.1 RE24 in support.