Miami Marlins at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The Miami Marlins defeated the New York Mets 4-2 at Citi Field on September 26, 2023, handing the home side a loss the DiamondIQ model had rated as a coin flip before first pitch, with the Mets carrying a 48 percent pre-game win probability that fell to zero by the final out. Miami built its lead incrementally, getting on the board in the first inning before Jesús Sánchez delivered the game's first major swing, a home run off Kodai Senga in the fourth that shifted the win-probability needle by plus 11.8 percent in the Marlins' favor. Francisco Lindor answered immediately for New York in the bottom half with a solo shot off Johnny Cueto worth plus 11.9 percent, keeping the Mets within striking distance and setting up a tense middle portion of the game in which neither side scored from the fifth through the eighth innings.

The decisive blow came in the top of the ninth against Adam Ottavino, when Jon Berti singled to generate the largest single win-probability swing of the game at plus 22.5 percent, part of a two-run Miami half-inning that extended the lead to 4-2. Andrew Nardi then closed out the Mets in the bottom of the ninth, with Francisco Alvarez's strikeout representing a plus 12.0 percent swing from New York's perspective as the final threat evaporated. Berti finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus 26.0 percent with a RE24 of plus 2.1, while Lindor led Mets hitters at plus 18.1 percent despite the team's two errors on the night.

On the mound, Miami's bullpen carried the model's most favorable pitching numbers, with A.J. Puk leading at plus 13.7 percent WPA, followed by Matt Moore at plus 10.9 percent and Brooks Raley at plus 10.6 percent. The combination of Berti's ninth-inning hit, a clean Marlins defense, and a dominant late bullpen performance allowed Miami to overcome a balanced game through eight innings and close out a road win that the DiamondIQ model ultimately assigned no remaining probability to the Mets reversing.