Miami Marlins at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The New York Mets closed out a dominant 11-2 victory over the Miami Marlins on September 27, 2023, at Citi Field, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win probability climbing from a nearly even 48 percent before first pitch all the way to 100 percent by game's end. New York spread its 11 runs across six different innings, collecting 12 hits while Miami managed 9 hits but could not convert them into sustained offense against a Mets pitching staff that controlled the game from start to finish.

The single most decisive moment came in the bottom of the third inning, when Francisco Lindor connected for a home run off Braxton Garrett, a swing that shifted the DiamondIQ model's win probability by plus 14.4 percent in New York's favor. Miami had opportunities to keep pace early but squandered them — Jazz Chisholm Jr.'s strikeout against Joey Lucchesi in the top of the second cost the Marlins 7.9 percent in win probability, and Bryan De La Cruz grounded into a double play off Lucchesi in the fourth for an additional 6.1 percent swing against Miami. Those missed chances proved fatal as the Mets continued to add on with two-run frames in the first, third, sixth, and eighth innings, and a three-run seventh.

Lindor finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus 15.4 percent with a RE24 of plus 4.1, while Mark Vientos contributed plus 8.0 percent WPA and Pete Alonso added plus 5.7 percent WPA alongside a RE24 of plus 3.0. On the mound, Joey Lucchesi was the clear standout, posting a remarkable plus 24.4 percent WPA as he repeatedly stranded Marlins baserunners and kept Miami's offense in check throughout his outing.