Chicago Cubs at Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Recap

The Atlanta Braves walked off the Chicago Cubs 6-5 in ten innings on September 27, 2023, at Truist Park, a game the DiamondIQ model had opened with a 66 percent home win probability that ultimately reached 100 percent by the final out. The Cubs carried a 4-3 lead into the bottom of the ninth, but Marcell Ozuna erased it with a solo home run off Mark Leiter Jr. that swung win probability by 47.1 percent, the single largest play of the game. Chicago answered in the top of the tenth when Yan Gomes singled off Kirby Yates to push the Cubs back in front 5-4, a hit worth 30.7 percent in win probability. Atlanta then loaded the extra-inning automatic runner and manufactured the winning rally in the bottom half, with Ozzie Albies delivering a go-ahead single off Daniel Palencia worth 35.9 percent, before Orlando Arcia plated the insurance run on a groundout that added another 23.7 percent to the Braves' win probability.

Ozuna and Albies were the statistical engines of Atlanta's comeback. Ozuna finished with a combined WPA of plus-67.9 percent and a RE24 of plus-2.6, his ninth-inning blast the moment that fundamentally reset the game's trajectory. Albies was equally critical, accumulating plus-57.1 percent WPA and plus-2.8 RE24 across his two key hits, including an eighth-inning single off Julian Merryweather worth 21.4 percent that helped the Braves begin closing the gap before Ozuna's equalizer. Gomes was Chicago's lone bright spot in the model's accounting, finishing at plus-32.3 percent WPA. On the pitching side, Drew Smyly led Atlanta's staff with plus-25.0 percent WPA, and Michael Tonkin added plus-11.6 percent as the Braves' bullpen held long enough for the offense to complete the rally.