Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 13 | 2 |
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 11 | 1 |
The Story
The Tampa Bay Rays defeated the Boston Red Sox 9-7 at Fenway Park on September 26, 2023, building an insurmountable early lead before surviving a persistent Boston rally. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving the home side a 42 percent win probability, but the Rays wasted no time eroding that edge, plating three runs in the first inning and four more in the third to take a commanding 7-0 advantage through three frames. Boston answered with three in the fifth, two in the sixth, and one in the seventh, but the Rays added two insurance runs in the eighth to ultimately seal a two-run victory, with the model's estimate of a Boston win falling to zero percent by the final out.
The decisive swing plays came on both sides of the ledger as Boston attempted its comeback. Wilyer Abreu's double off Kevin Kelly in the bottom of the sixth carried the largest single-play win-probability shift of the night at plus 16.0 percent, representing the heart of the Red Sox charge. Justin Turner followed with a meaningful single off Colin Poche in the seventh worth plus 14.1 percent, and Enmanuel Valdez contributed a double off Shawn Armstrong in the eighth adding plus 12.1 percent. However, two strikeouts proved critical in extinguishing Boston's hopes: Masataka Yoshida's strikeout to end the ninth off Pete Fairbanks added 14.4 percent to Tampa Bay's win probability, while Connor Wong's strikeout against Armstrong in the eighth cost Boston 11.4 percent.
Among the top individual performers, Enmanuel Valdez led all players with a WPA of plus 17.6 percent and a RE24 of plus 3.4, making him the most impactful offensive contributor by the DiamondIQ model's measure. Trevor Story posted plus 13.7 percent WPA and plus 1.2 RE24, while Yoshida finished at plus 11.3 percent WPA despite a RE24 of minus 0.3, reflecting his mixed but ultimately costly night at the plate. On the mound, Zach Eflin was the standout arm with a WPA of plus 10.2 percent, supported by John Schreiber at plus 4.2 percent and Mauricio Llovera at plus 1.4 percent as the Rays bullpen held enough of the lead to close out the road win.