MLB Recap · September 25, 2023

Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels: Final Score & Recap

TEX5
Final
LAA1

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
TEX000003110590
LAA010000000180

The Story

The Texas Rangers completed a dominant road victory over the Los Angeles Angels on September 25, 2023, winning 5-1 at Angel Stadium and erasing what the DiamondIQ model's estimate had as a 42 percent pre-game home win probability down to zero by the final out. The Angels managed to scratch across the game's first run in the second inning, but the Rangers left the offense dormant for several frames before breaking the game open in decisive fashion.

The sixth inning against reliever Jimmy Herget proved to be the turning point and effectively the entire game in a single half-inning. Mitch Garver led off the assault with a home run that shifted win probability by plus 14.3 percent in Texas's favor, and Adolis García followed with another home run for a plus 13.8 percent swing. Nathaniel Lowe then added a third consecutive home run off Herget, contributing another plus 13.0 percent swing, and the Rangers had turned a deficit into a commanding lead in a matter of plate appearances. Marcus Semien extended the advantage in the seventh with a solo shot off Jaime Barria, a plus 9.8 percent swing, while Eduardo Escobar's groundout in the bottom of the seventh represented the Angels' best remaining opportunity, a minus 8.3 percent play off Jonathan Hernández that went in Texas's favor.

Garver was the game's standout performer by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, finishing with a plus 22.4 percent WPA and plus 2.2 RE24, while García contributed plus 16.1 percent WPA and plus 0.9 RE24. On the mound, José Suarez led all pitchers at plus 23.1 percent WPA, with Jon Gray adding plus 12.2 percent and Hernández contributing plus 8.3 percent as the Rangers' pitching staff kept the Angels' lineup in check throughout.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025TEX bats firstFinalLAA win %TEX win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 42.2% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Mitch Garver Home Run
Top 6th · off Jimmy Herget
+14.3%
Adolis García Home Run
Top 6th · off Jimmy Herget
+13.8%
Nathaniel Lowe Home Run
Top 6th · off Jimmy Herget
+13.0%
Marcus Semien Home Run
Top 7th · off Jaime Barria
+9.8%
Eduardo Escobar Groundout
Bot 7th · off Jonathan Hernández
-8.3%

Top Batters by WPA

Mitch Garver+22.4%+2.2 RE24
Adolis García+16.1%+0.9 RE24
Michael Stefanic+10.3%+0.9 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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