Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Recap

The Baltimore Orioles defeated the Cleveland Guardians 5-1 at Progressive Field on September 24, 2023, handing Cleveland a loss the DiamondIQ model's estimate had already begun pricing in heavily. Pre-game, the model placed Cleveland's win probability at 39 percent; by the final out, it had fallen to zero. Baltimore did its most decisive damage in the second inning, scoring three runs in a burst that shifted the game's complexion early. Jordan Westburg's double off Triston McKenzie in that frame carried a win-probability swing of plus-5.2 percent, and the Orioles never relinquished the lead from that point forward. Cleveland had a chance to respond in the bottom half, but Will Brennan's lineout off Kyle Gibson proved a critical missed opportunity, costing the Guardians 6.0 percent in win probability at a moment when they could least afford it.

Baltimore extended its advantage with a run in the fourth and another in the fifth. Adley Rutschman's fourth-inning double off Eli Morgan added 6.9 percent in win probability, and Cedric Mullins followed with a single off Sam Hentges in the fifth worth 7.6 percent — the single biggest swing of the game. Cleveland's lone run came on a José Ramírez double off Gibson in the fourth, a swing that added 5.3 percent for the home side but ultimately amounted to little more than a footnote.

By WPA, Rutschman was Baltimore's most valuable contributor at plus-9.1 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.8, edging Mullins at plus-8.9 percent. On the mound, Kyle Gibson was the story, posting a plus-15.7 percent WPA as he kept Cleveland's lineup in check through the heart of the game. Danny Coulombe added plus-5.7 percent out of the bullpen. For Cleveland, Ramírez's plus-8.5 percent WPA represented the brightest spot in an otherwise quiet night, as the Guardians managed just five hits and were unable to generate any sustained pressure against Baltimore's pitching staff.