Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals: Final Score & Recap

The Washington Nationals defeated the Atlanta Braves 3-2 at Nationals Park on September 24, 2023, overcoming a pre-game DiamondIQ model estimate of just 34 percent in favor of the home side. Washington scored in the second, sixth, and ninth innings while holding Atlanta to single runs in the second and ninth, building enough of a cushion to close out the victory with a clean defensive ledger on both sides, each team finishing without an error.

The decisive swing in win probability came in the bottom of the sixth, when Jacob Young doubled off Kyle Wright to add 11.3 percent to Washington's win probability, the single largest play of the game by that measure. That hit followed a productive second inning in which Young contributed a single off Allan Winans worth plus 6.0 percent, and Jake Alu added a double off Winans worth plus 7.9 percent, laying the foundation for the Nationals' lead. Atlanta's best chance to claw back came in the top of the seventh, when Nicky Lopez's flyout against Robert Garcia represented a swing of minus 7.8 percent for the Braves, effectively draining what remained of their realistic comeback window. A double play grounded into by Drew Millas in the sixth, costing Washington 7.2 percent, was the one moment the home side nearly undermined its own rally.

Young finished as the game's most impactful offensive player, accumulating plus 19.0 percent in WPA and plus 2.0 RE24, while Alu contributed plus 7.8 percent WPA and plus 1.0 RE24. On the mound, Jackson Rutledge led all pitchers with plus 22.6 percent WPA, followed by Robert Garcia at plus 14.5 percent and Hunter Harvey at plus 8.1 percent, a collective pitching performance that proved more than sufficient to strand Atlanta well short of a comeback.