MLB Recap · September 23, 2023

Chicago White Sox at Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Recap

CWS1
Final
BOS0

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
CWS000000001151
BOS000000000080

The Story

The Chicago White Sox blanked the Boston Red Sox 1-0 at Fenway Park on September 23, 2023, completing a nine-inning shutout on a single swing of the bat. The DiamondIQ model had opened the day assigning Boston a 65% pre-game win probability, a figure that collapsed to 0% by the final out, representing one of the sharper single-game probability reversals the model recorded. All nine innings were scoreless until Luis Robert Jr. connected off Josh Winckowski in the top of the ninth for a solo home run, a blow the model measured at a +41.6% win-probability swing — the decisive moment of the contest and the only run either side would score.

Dylan Cease was the central figure for Chicago on the mound, finishing with a +44.6% WPA that led all pitchers in the game, his performance holding a Boston lineup that collected eight hits to no productive end. Nick Pivetta was nearly as dominant for the Red Sox at +30.3% WPA, keeping the White Sox off the board through eight innings despite Chicago's five hits. Aaron Bummer bridged the gap in relief, posting +10.9% WPA including a key groundout induced from Masataka Yoshida in the bottom of the eighth — a sequence the model valued at a +10.0% swing in the White Sox's favor. Bryan Shaw closed things out in the ninth, stranding a two-out Enmanuel Valdez single after Ceddanne Rafaela struck out to end the game, a punchout that carried a +21.4% win-probability impact for Chicago from the batting-team perspective.

Robert led all position players at +38.7% WPA on the strength of his walk-off home run, while Rafaela finished second among batters at +23.8% WPA despite a -0.4 RE24, reflecting how critical his final strikeout was in preserving the lead. Valdez contributed a +7.4% WPA on his ninth-inning single, though the threat ultimately went unfinished. Boston out-hit Chicago eight to five and never trailed until the final half-inning, a reflection of how thoroughly Pivetta had contained the White Sox offense — only for the game to turn entirely on one pitch from Winckowski to Robert.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025CWS bats firstFinalBOS win %CWS win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 64.8% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Luis Robert Jr. Home Run
Top 9th · off Josh Winckowski
+41.6%
Ceddanne Rafaela Strikeout
Bot 9th · off Bryan Shaw
+21.4%
Bobby Dalbec Strikeout
Bot 9th · off Bryan Shaw
-10.7%
Masataka Yoshida Groundout
Bot 8th · off Aaron Bummer
-10.0%
Enmanuel Valdez Single
Bot 9th · off Bryan Shaw
+9.0%

Top Batters by WPA

Luis Robert Jr.+38.7%+0.5 RE24
Ceddanne Rafaela+23.8%-0.4 RE24
Enmanuel Valdez+7.4%+0.4 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

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