MLB Recap · September 23, 2023

Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Yankees: Final Score & Recap

AZ4
Final
NYY6

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
AZ200000110481
NYY00020013-690

The Story

The New York Yankees defeated the Arizona Diamondbacks 6-4 on September 23, 2023, at Yankee Stadium, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home-team win beginning at 52% before tip climbing to 100% by the final out. Arizona struck first with a two-run first inning, but New York answered with a two-run fourth when Austin Wells connected on a home run off Merrill Kelly, a swing that shifted win probability by 16.1 percentage points. The game remained tight into the late innings before the Yankees pulled away decisively, outscoring Arizona 4-1 over the seventh and eighth frames combined.

The decisive blow came in the bottom of the seventh when Oswald Peraza launched a home run off Ryan Thompson, a plus-17.3 percentage-point swing that represented the single largest win-probability moment of the game. Arizona threatened in the top half of that same inning, as Gabriel Moreno singled off Nick Ramirez for a plus-15.4 percentage-point swing from the Diamondbacks' perspective, but the rally fell short. New York then put the game away in the eighth, with Anthony Volpe drawing a walk off Kevin Ginkel for a 16.8-point swing, followed by another Peraza walk against the same pitcher adding 15.5 percentage points to the Yankees' column.

Peraza finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus-20.5 with a RE24 of plus-1.4, while Gleyber Torres posted a plus-19.2 WPA and Corbin Carroll led Arizona's side at plus-18.0. On the mound, Greg Weissert paced all pitchers with a plus-13.4 WPA, while Merrill Kelly's plus-9.9 mark was notable given that he surrendered the Wells home run but still contributed positively to Arizona's win-probability position across his overall outing.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025AZ bats firstFinalNYY win %AZ win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 52.1% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Oswald Peraza Home Run
Bot 7th · off Ryan Thompson
+17.3%
Anthony Volpe Walk
Bot 8th · off Kevin Ginkel
+16.8%
Austin Wells Home Run
Bot 4th · off Merrill Kelly
+16.1%
Oswald Peraza Walk
Bot 8th · off Kevin Ginkel
+15.5%
Gabriel Moreno Single
Top 7th · off Nick Ramirez
+15.4%

Top Batters by WPA

Oswald Peraza+20.5%+1.4 RE24
Gleyber Torres+19.2%+0.8 RE24
Corbin Carroll+18.0%+0.8 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

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