St. Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap

The St. Louis Cardinals rallied past the San Diego Padres 5-2 in eleven innings at Petco Park on September 23, 2023, overcoming a game that the DiamondIQ model had opened with a 59 percent pre-game win probability favoring San Diego. The Cardinals managed nothing offensively through the first six innings, but Masyn Winn broke through with a single off Pedro Avila in the seventh that carried a win-probability swing of plus-24.2 percent, providing the Cardinals their first lead and dramatically shifting the complexion of the contest. San Diego clawed back with a run in the ninth, when Jurickson Profar drew a walk off Ryan Helsley that swung win probability by plus-21.0 percent in the Padres' favor, only for Fernando Tatis Jr. to strand the threat with a strikeout that cost San Diego 19.0 percent in win probability and kept the game tied heading to extra innings.

The Cardinals put the game away decisively in the eleventh against Scott Barlow, with Luken Baker and Jordan Walker delivering back-to-back singles that represented the two most impactful plays of the night. Baker's single shifted the win probability by plus-25.6 percent, and Walker's followed immediately at plus-25.1 percent, together accounting for over fifty percentage points of swing in a matter of plate appearances. Baker finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus-30.8 percent with a run expectancy of plus-1.5, while Xander Bogaerts contributed plus-20.3 percent WPA and Profar posted plus-20.2 percent despite San Diego's loss. On the pitching side, Nick Martinez led Cardinals arms with plus-14.1 percent WPA, supported by John King at plus-9.7 percent and Jake Woodford at plus-8.4 percent, a trio that collectively held San Diego in check through the critical middle innings and set the stage for the Cardinals' late surge.